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Writer's pictureThe Futurist

The Implications of Autonomous Vehicles



The concept of autonomous vehicles has long occupied a distinctive place when conjuring up ideals of the future, and it could now be close to crossing the boundaries into reality.

Waymo, the driverless car unit of Google’s parent company, are in the process of trialling their ride-hailing model in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the first to reach level 4 standard – where cars can drive under full autonomy in pre-set areas that have been carefully mapped and tested. Elon Musk has also stated that a fully autonomous level 5 (the highest level) Tesla will be available by the end of 2018.

The benefits of this are far-reaching. The high cost of this new technology will mean it will be initially unaffordable for most to buy autonomous vehicles. Instead, robotaxis, such as that being developed by Waymo, will become the norm, particularly for city-dwellers. This could in fact provide a far cheaper and convenient alternative to the norm. Currently, travelling by ride-hailing services, such as Uber, costs on average $2.50 a mile. This cost could fall to $0.70 without a driver, according to UBS, which is less than the $1.20 it costs on average to run a private car. Robotaxis thus could pave the way for a much more accessible yet more comfortable form of travel.

The benefits extend even further than this. By 2035, 80% of people are expected to be using robotaxis in cities, according to UBS. This will lead urban car ownership to fall by 70%. The total number of vehicles on the road will also fall by roughly half of what it is. Not only will this have hugely positive implications for environmental protection, but vast swathes of land that are currently used for parking spaces will become available. This will completely redefine the ways in which our cities our structured.

Yet the potential downsides of this are apparent, which governments will have to learn to overcome. As would be expected, many industries will be heavily affected by this new technology, yet most prominently is the freight industry. The International Transport Forum predicts that around 3 million driver jobs needed globally would be lost if driverless lorries became a reality. The effects would be felt most harshly in the United States where whole towns are reliant on the trade that the freight industry brings. Governments must act to ensure occupations are still available once this technology is introduced.

A much more sinister side to this is also evident. Autonomous vehicles will record all that happens both in and around them. This will mean operators would possess huge amounts of information about their riders, a freedom that may have to be relinquished if this technology is going to take off. Moreover, there is also the risk that in authoritarian countries robotaxis, through controlling where people are permitted to go, could control people’s movements. Both governments and operators will need to collaborate to ensure this technology is not ultimately used for despotic ends.

This technology has the potential to completely revolutionise many aspects of our society with a huge array of benefits that will come with it. But governments must make sure they anticipate the challenges that will be created and act swiftly to remedy them.


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