The primary driver of Artificial Intelligence has so far been the private sector, with companies like Google and Facebook being the most well-known. However, even companies not traditionally known for technological advancements have been big spenders, for example, JP Morgan Chase spent nearly $10 billion investing in tech in 2016 (CNBC, 2017). What this implies is that technological change has the potential to revolutionise not only directly related industries, but the future of work itself, as its impact spreads across economies and the globe. In this article I want to hopefully dispel a few myths about how technology will likely change the nature of work.

It is thought that about half of all worker activity could be automated by 2030 (Mckinsey, 2018). The areas that tend to be ‘protected’ from automation are those that involve giving expertise or managing others (I would recommend reading the Mckinsey report, linked below, which models various scenarios). The midpoint Mckinsey model predicts that 15% of the global workforce, or 400 million workers, will be displaced by automation by 2030. The scene seems to be set then for rapid job losses, and serious consequences for economies as a result of this.

However, history provides a useful guide in these situations. For example, it is reasonable to assume that around 10% of new jobs created by 2030 will be totally new occupations (Mckinsey, 2018). It is also reasonable to think that potentially millions of jobs will be created due to technological advances. The invention of personal computers serves as a good example, with millions of jobs created as a result of the subsequent demand for production, distribution, and information analysis.

What is clear is that adaptability will be the key for workers of the future (PWC, 2018). Success for these workers will largely be a function of their willingness to adapt, to learn new skills, and to take the risks associated with these pursuits. Given the wide range of potential futures, nothing could be more important than the ability to be flexible. It is very possible that ‘portfolio careers’ could become the norm, where workers function on a more contractual basis, constantly re-skilling and avoiding work that could tie them down. A more adaptive work force is most likely the key to the automation problem. In this sense, it is a case of working around machines, filling in the gaps, and constantly being on the lookout for new opportunities created by technology.

While the future is in essence unpredictable, I personally find it unlikely that the global workforce will see a decline of 50%. New jobs are always being created, and automation will likely provide spillover effects for other industries and markets, not to mention creating billions of dollars of value. The key to a successful future workforce is adaptability and flexibility (PWC, 2018), as these attributes will simultaneously allow economies to gain the most value from automation and be as prepared as possible for all potential futures.

Jamie Dimon: JPMorgan spent nearly $10 billion on tech last year: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/04/jamie-dimon-letter-jpmorgan-spent-9-5b-on-tech-last-year.html

AI, automation, and the future of work: Ten things to solve for: https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-organizations-and-work/ai-automation-and-the-future-of-work-ten-things-to-solve-for

Workforce of the future: The competing forces shaping 2030: https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/services/people-organisation/workforce-of-the-future/workforce-of-the-future-the-competing-forces-shaping-2030-pwc.pdf